[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 7 09:45:58 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: The sun has been flare quiet over the past few days.
Some surging noted in active region 655 near the centre of the
visible solar disk. Some loop prominence activity observed on
the east limb. This is probably associated with returning region
649, which produced a number of M- to X-class flares on the previous
rotation. A small southern hemisphere coronal hole is now past
central solar meridian. The Earth may encounter a mildly elevated
solar wind stream from this feature in the next day or so.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 2110 0012
Darwin 3 2210 1012
Townsville 2 2110 0012
Learmonth 2 2110 0012
Culgoora 2 2110 0011
Canberra 1 2110 0001
Hobart 2 2110 1011
Casey(Ant) 4 2320 0002
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 AUG :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora NA
Canberra 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 1102 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity remains steady at nominal values.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
has remained generally northward to neutral, resulting in generally
quiet geomagnetic conditions. A small southern-hemisphere coronal
hole is now past central solar meridian. A slightly elevated
solar wind stream from this feature may cause unsettled geomagnetic
conditions late on day one, persisteing on days two to three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable daytime depressions and brief disturbances
observed at low latitudes. Widespread disturbances at high latitudes.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected next few days. Chance isolated
degradations at high latitudes in association with geomagnetic
activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Generally near predicted monthly values during
local day. Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Widespread and
persistent periods of disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 40 near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 35 near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief localised daytime disturbances observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Evening spread-F observed S Aus region. Widespread
spread-F and sporadic-E conditions observed Antarctic region.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected next three days. A mildly
elevated coronal hole wind stream may result in periods of disturbance
from late day one into day three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 17200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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