[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 5 09:20:16 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 95/41
COMMENT: ACE solar wind speed remains at around 320-340km/sec.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic ifeld
was mildly southward (5nT) between 11 and 16 UT. Solar activity
has been minimal over the past 24 hours. Intermediate spot development
of 655 has slowed. Returning 642 may not be a spotted region.
A small coronal hole is currently visible in SOHO EIT 284 imagery
in the south east solar quadrant.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 0010 1100
Darwin 3 1111 1111
Townsville 1 0011 2000
Learmonth 0 0000 1000
Culgoora 1 1010 1100
Canberra 0 0000 1100
Hobart 1 0000 2000
Casey(Ant) 2 1010 2100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 AUG :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5 2211 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 5 Quiet
06 Aug 5 Quiet
07 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: 27 day recurrence patterns indicate that quiet conditions
should persist for the next 3 days. Afterwhich, a minor increase
in geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels may occur on 08 Aug
due to a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Some spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 30 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: A8.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 29000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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