[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Aug             05 Aug             06 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: ACE solar wind speed has dropped to around 340 km/sec. 
No signidicant flare activity was observed over the past 24 hours. 
Minor development of intermediate and trailer spots in Region 
655 over the past 24 hours. Bz remained northward throughout 
the day. The previously non-flaring solar region 642 appears 
to be returning to the solar disk. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1110 0001
      Darwin               1   1110 0001
      Townsville           1   1200 0002
      Learmonth            0   1100 0000
      Culgoora             1   1110 0001
      Canberra             0   0100 0001
      Hobart               0   0100 0001
      Casey(Ant)           3   2220 0001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 AUG : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2133 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Aug     5    Quiet 
05 Aug     5    Quiet 
06 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet conditions next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Aug    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values, with some Spread F
      observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regional MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly 
values. Good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: A6.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 418 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    58100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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