[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Aug             04 Aug             05 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              90/34
COMMENT: ACE solar wind speed has been steady at around 400 km/sec. 
No significant flare activity was observed over the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 02 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1122 0011
      Darwin               4   1122 0122
      Townsville           3   1122 0112
      Learmonth            4   1122 1021
      Culgoora             4   2222 1002
      Canberra             4   1132 0001
      Hobart               4   1132 0001
      Casey(Ant)           7   2332 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 AUG : 
      Townsville           9   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              8   3211 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Aug     5    Quiet 
05 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet conditions next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Aug    36

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values to enhanced by 30% over 
      the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
05 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regional MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly 
values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A9.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 473 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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