[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 August 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z AUGUST 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 02 AUGUST - 04 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Aug:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Aug             03 Aug             04 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: ACE solar wind data shows a weak shock-like discontinuity 
at around 0149UT. Solar wind speed jumped from 482 to 532km/sec 
then declined and is currently at 430km/sec. This minor event was 
probably a glancing blow from the slow decline C8/CME event at 0657UT 
on 31 July. No significant flare activity has been observed over 
the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   3211 0013
      Darwin               5   3211 0022
      Townsville           4   3211 0013
      Learmonth            5   3211 0023
      Culgoora             4   3210 0013
      Canberra             4   3211 0012
      Hobart               4   3220 0012
      Casey(Ant)          11   34-2 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 AUG : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2222 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Expect mostly quiet conditions next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
04 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Aug    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  37

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
03 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
04 Aug    30    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Regional MUFs expected to remain near predicted monthly 
values. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+09 (very high)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jul
Speed: 468 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   154000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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