[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 July 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z JULY 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul:  86/29


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Aug             02 Aug             03 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    85/27              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: A C-8 level X-ray flare was observed at 31/07UT. An 
associated CME does not appear earth-directed. A slow-drifting 
Type IV radio noise storm of moderate intensity was observed 
on the Culgoora radiospectrograph at 06-07UT. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 3212
      Darwin               6   2212 3112
      Townsville           7   2222 3111
      Learmonth            8   2123 3212
      Culgoora             6   1212 3212
      Canberra             7   1213 3212
      Hobart               7   1213 3211
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-32 2122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 JUL : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           10   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            NA
      Canberra            69   (Active)
      Hobart              63   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2112 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Aug    12    Mostly quiet. Chance isolated active periods. 
02 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
03 Aug     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have declined to mostly quiet 
levels. There is a slight possibility of a mild shock arrival 
today, with possible brief periods of unsettled conditions. Expect 
mostly quiet conditions days two and three. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Variable overnight enhancements observed at low latitudes. 
Localised degradations observed at high latitudes. Mostly normal 
HF conditions expected next few days. Chance isolated degradations 
at high latitudes day one in association with geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jul    33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with isolated
      localised disturbances. 


Predicted Monthly T index for July:  39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Aug    35    near predicted monthly values 
02 Aug    30    near predicted monthly values 
03 Aug    35    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Variable overnight enhancements observed equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Localised disturbances observed Antarctic regions. 
Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days. Possible 
mild degradations at high latitudes on day one in association 
with slightly elevated geomagnetic activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+09 (very high)
       X-ray background: B2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    75700 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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