[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              90/34              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours apart 
from a C3 Flare from region 599 at 0716UT resulting in an associated 
Type II radio sweep response. The solar X Ray flux showed a moderate 
duration of decay from the C3.1 to nominal level which suggest 
possible CME from this flare event. Estimated shock speed was 
600km/s. No LASCO-C3 imagery is available yet for analysis of 
any possible CME. There is a possibility of an earth directed 
shock wave from this event expected to arrive in the next 2-3 
days.Solar wind speed gradually fell from 460 to 420km/s over 
the UT day. Bz went southward for the latter half of the day 
only to a maximum of -5nT. Region 599 is expected to have the 
potential for further isolated M-class activity over the next 
few days. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1221 0121
      Darwin               6   1321 1222
      Townsville           5   1321 1211
      Learmonth            5   1221 1221
      Culgoora             3   1211 0111
      Canberra             3   1211 0121
      Hobart               2   0211 0111
      Casey(Ant)           6   2321 0121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   2131 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr     6    Quiet 
29 Apr     6    Quiet 
30 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the past 24 hrs. 
Solar wind stream parameters have declined from previously elevated 
levels. There is the possibility of a mild earth directed shock 
which is expected to be seen in the next 2-3 days resulting in 
brief periods of unsettled conditions. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. 
Conditions are expected to remain the same for the following 
2 days with only a small chance of disturbed conditions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    60    near predicted monthly values 
29 Apr    60    near predicted monthly values 
30 Apr    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for the next 24 
hours. Possibility of breif disturbances for days 2 and 3 due 
to the expected arrival of a mild solar wind shock. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 487 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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