[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Apr             28 Apr             29 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48              95/41              90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was quiet over the past 24 hours with 
only a minor C2 class event at 0300UT. Solar windspeed showed 
a gradual decline from 550km/h at 000UT to 450km/h at 1520UT. 
untill a mild shock was observed with an increasse to the solar 
wind to 510km/h, along with small notable increases in the density 
and the tempreture of the solar wind stream. The Solar wind still 
exhibits a declining nature. Bz went southward at the time of 
this mild shock at -6nT and remained so for an hour until it 
returned to nuetral. Region 599 remains unchanged, but with a 
notable complex magnetic structure and has the potential for 
further isolated M-class activity over the next few days. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1516UT 
on 26 Apr. 
ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
26/1020UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2110 1212
      Darwin               5   2211 1222
      Townsville           3   1110 1223
      Learmonth            3   2101 0212
      Culgoora             2   1110 0212
      Canberra             2   1110 0212
      Hobart               3   1110 1211
      Casey(Ant)           8   3331 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            62   (Active)
      Hobart              59   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12   1343 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Apr     6    Quiet 
28 Apr     6    Quiet 
29 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the past 24 hrs. 
Solar wind stream parameters are declining from previously elevated 
levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. 
Conditions are expected to remain the same for the following 
2 days with only a small chance of disturbed conditions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Apr    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Apr    65    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
28 Apr    65    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
29 Apr    65    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for the next 24 
hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   216000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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