[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 26 09:41:36 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/1N 0537UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels with a C9 level
flare at 0140UT and an M2 level flare at 0500UT, both resulting
from active region 599. This region produced a number of other
B- to minor C-class flares over the UT day. LASCO imagery is
not available at present for analysis of any possible mass ejection
from the larger flares. X-ray activity was mostly impulsive,
and minimal radio sweep activity has been observed on the Culgoora
Radiospectrograph, indicating that significant CME events are
unlikely. Region 596 appears to be in slow decline. Region 599
shows some magnetic complexity, and has potential for further
isolated M-class activity over the next few days. Solar wind
speed remainds mildly elevated under the influence of a large
southern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 2333 3122
Darwin 11 2333 3221
Townsville 10 2333 3113
Learmonth 9 2233 3122
Culgoora 9 1333 3111
Canberra 11 2333 3121
Hobart 9 1333 3111
Casey(Ant) 11 3342 2122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 APR :
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 1234 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 12 Unsettled, slight chance for active periods.
27 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 8 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains mildly elevated at 500-550
km/s. The Bz component of the IMF has remained mostly northward.
An extended period of southward bias in the first half of the
UT day resulted in intervals of active conditions at high latitudes,
and unsettled conditions at lower latitudes. Expect similar conditions
today, and a gradual decline in geomagnetic activity towards
mostly quiet conditions by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the next
24 hours. Chance of minor disturbances for the next two days
at higher latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity
resulting from a mildly elevated coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly enhanced over the UT day with
variable localised disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Apr 75 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 Apr 80 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Isolated minor daytime depressions observed in Equatorial
region. Brief mild depression observed before local dawn NZ region
but recovering post-dawn. Generally good HF conditions expected
for the next 24 hours. Isolated disturbances possible for the
next two days at high latitudes, in association with geomagnetic
activity resulting from a mildly elevated solar wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 450 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 135000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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