[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 25 09:40:03 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 23/2112UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Region 597 and newly-numbered region 599 produced numerous
B- to minor C-class flares over the UT day. Background X-ray
flux and radio noise declined over the UT day as region 597 rotated
beyond the west solar limb. There is a possibility of isolated
M-class activity today from regions 596 and 599. A large southern
hemisphere coronal hole is producing a mildly elevated solar
wind stream.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 0808UT
on 24 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 9 2223 3312
Darwin 10 2223 3322
Townsville 12 2224 3322
Learmonth 8 2223 3212
Culgoora 9 1223 3312
Canberra 11 1224 3312
Hobart 9 2223 3311
Casey(Ant) 15 3433 3311
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 APR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 20 2344 5423
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 15 Unsettled, chance for active periods.
26 Apr 12 Unsettled
27 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: A large southern hemisphere coronal hole is producing
a mildly elevated solar wind stream. Solar wind speed remains
at 400-450 km/s. The Bz comnponent of the IMF has remained mostly
neutral. A period of sustained southward bias in the mid-part
of the UT day preceded active intervals at high latitudes only.
Similar conditions are expected today, with a gradual decline
in solar wind parameters and geomagnetic activity following on
days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the next
24 hours. Chance of minor disturbances for the next two days
at higher latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity
resulting from a mildly elevated coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly enhanced with isolated localised
disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr 75 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
27 Apr 80 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed before local dawn at mid-Aus
latitudes. Mild evening spread-F conditions observed S Aus/NZ
regions. Generally good HF conditions expected for the next 24
hours. Isolated disturbances possible for the next two days at
high latitudes, in association with geomagnetic activity resulting
from a mildly elevated solar wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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