[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 24 09:44:56 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:* YELLOW * MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1150UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity reached moderate levels today with considerable
flare and radio noise activity emanating from AR 597. This region
produced short duration M1 level flares at 1150 and 2110UT. Considerable
Type I radio noise has been observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph
in the hours up to report issue, including a reverse-slope radio
sweep preceding the latter M1 level flare. There has also been
a general increase in background X-ray flux over the past two
days, probably also due to active region 597. This region is
due to rotate off the west limb within the next 24 hours. There
is a possibility of further M-class activity today from regions
597 and 596. A large southern hemisphere coronal hole is producing
a weak elevated solar wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 2333 4223
Darwin 11 2323 3233
Townsville 13 2333 4223
Learmonth 17 2233 5333
Culgoora 12 2233 4223
Canberra 13 2333 4223
Hobart 16 2333 5222
Casey(Ant) 19 4442 4323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 APR :
Townsville 11 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 45 (Unsettled)
Hobart 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 0021 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
26 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 21 April and
is current for interval 23-24 April. A large southern hemisphere
coronal hole is producing a mildly elevated solar wind stream.
Moderate southward excursions in the Bz component of the IMF
have resulted in periods of active to minor storm geomagnetic
conditions mainly at high latitudes, with isolaated active periods
at lower latitudes. Similar conditions are expected for the next
two to three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the next
24 hours. Chance of minor disturbances for the next three days
at higher latitudes in association with geomagnetic activity
resulting from a mildly elevated coronal hole wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night
and after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly enhanced with isolated localised
disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 75 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 21 April
and is current for interval 23-24 April. Generally good HF conditions
expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated disturbances possible
for the next two to three days at high latitudes, in association
with geomagnetic activity resulting from a mildly elevated solar
wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B2.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 68000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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