[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 23 09:36:48 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/1N 0219UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity remained mostly quiet over the last 24
hours. Region 596 produced a short duration M1 class event at
02UT. Solar wind was steady around 400km/s. The North/South magnetic
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated about
nuetral between +/-5nT. There is the possibility of further C
to M class activity from Region 596.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 1211 1112
Darwin 4 1221 1123
Townsville 5 2122 2112
Learmonth 4 2111 1122
Culgoora 3 1111 1112
Canberra 3 0210 1121
Hobart 3 1210 2011
Casey(Ant) 4 2--2 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 APR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1312 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 15 Unsettled
24 Apr 15 Unsettled
25 Apr 15 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 21 April and
is current for interval 23-24 April. Isolated chance of unsettled
to active periods for the next three days due to large southern
hemisphere coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Chance of minor disturbances for the next three days at higher
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr 65 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 21 April
and is current for interval 23-24 April. Generally good HF conditions
expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated disturbances at high
latitudes are possible for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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