[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0219UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Apr             24 Apr             25 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity remained mostly quiet over the last 24 
hours. Region 596 produced a short duration M1 class event at 
02UT. Solar wind was steady around 400km/s. The North/South magnetic 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated about 
nuetral between +/-5nT. There is the possibility of further C 
to M class activity from Region 596. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1211 1112
      Darwin               4   1221 1123
      Townsville           5   2122 2112
      Learmonth            4   2111 1122
      Culgoora             3   1111 1112
      Canberra             3   0210 1121
      Hobart               3   1210 2011
      Casey(Ant)           4   2--2 1111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   1312 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Apr    15    Unsettled 
24 Apr    15    Unsettled 
25 Apr    15    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 21 April and 
is current for interval 23-24 April. Isolated chance of unsettled 
to active periods for the next three days due to large southern 
hemisphere coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. 
Chance of minor disturbances for the next three days at higher 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Apr    61

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Apr    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 Apr    60    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 21 April 
and is current for interval 23-24 April. Generally good HF conditions 
expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated disturbances at high 
latitudes are possible for the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:   117000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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