[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Apr             23 Apr             24 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity remained quiet as predicted over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind was steady around 410km/s. The North/South 
magnetic component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
about nuetral for most of the UT day. Region 596 continues to 
produce minor C class flares and is expected to continue doing 
so. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 21 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   1222 1222
      Darwin               5   2221 1223
      Townsville           9   2223 3222
      Learmonth            4   1121 1222
      Culgoora             4   1221 1122
      Canberra             5   1221 1222
      Hobart               5   1221 1222
      Casey(Ant)           9   2-33 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 APR : 
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1112 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Apr    18    Unsettled, chance for active periods. 
24 Apr    18    Unsettled, chance for active periods. 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 21 April and 
is current for interval 23-24 April. Quiet conditions are expected 
over the next 24 hours. Isolated chance of unsettled to active 
periods for 23April and 24April due to large southern hemisphere 
coronal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal        
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
24 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. 
Chance of minor disturbances on 23-24April due to the coronal 
hole. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 Apr    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Apr    65    Mostly near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
                5-15% at times. 
23 Apr    65    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
24 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on 21 April 
and is current for interval 23-24 April. Generally good HF conditions 
expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated disturbances are expected 
for April 23 April 24 and expected to only affect high latitudes. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:    27900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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