[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity remained quiet as predicted over the 
last 24 hours. Solar wind was steady between 330 and 340km/s 
with a small increase seen at 2200UT to 370km/s. The North/South 
magnetic component of the interplanetary magnetic field was close 
to nuetral for most of the UT day. Region 596 has not increased 
in size over the last 24hrs. Its magnetic complexity remains 
unchanged. A large coronal hole situated south of the suns equator 
will move into the geoeffective position on the 23rd of April 
and is expected to have a impact on the solar wind stream. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       1   1100 0012
      Darwin               2   1111 0112
      Townsville           1   1100 0011
      Learmonth            0   1100 0002
      Culgoora             0   1000 0001
      Canberra             1   -000 0022
      Hobart               0   1100 0001
      Casey(Ant)           4   2221 0112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2222 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
23 Apr    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected to continue over the next 
2 days.Unsettled to active periods are expected from April23 onwards. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected over the next 2 days 
for low to mid lattitudes. Higher lattitude conditions to remain 
normal-fair. Mild degradations for southern australia are expected 
from April23. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
slightly above predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    70    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
22 Apr    70    about 10% above predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for the next 2 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:    41900 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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