[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity remained low over the last 24 hours. 
Solar wind speed increased slightly from 355km/h to 385km/h at 
1200UT before slowing declining to 350km/h. The North/South magnetic 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 
+/-5nT. Region 596 has shown a small amount of growth in the 
past 24hrs. Its magnetic complexity remains unchanged. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2221 2111
      Darwin               5   1221 2212
      Townsville           4   2211 2112
      Learmonth            6   3221 2112
      Culgoora             3   1211 1111
      Canberra             4   1212 1110
      Hobart               4   2212 1101
      Casey(Ant)           8   2332 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 APR : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            12   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   1242 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Apr     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected to continue over the next 
2 days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Good HF conditions are expected to continue over the 
next 2 days at low to mid lattituds.Higher lattitudes to remain 
normal-fair. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Apr    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr    70    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr    70    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for the next 2 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    66200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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