[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed gradually declined from 400km/sec to 340km/sec at 
16UT and then rose slightly to 360km/sec. The North/South magnetic 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field went slightly 
southward at 6UT and 12UT with a maximum of -5nT, before returning 
to average nuetral fluctuations from 14UT onward. Region 596 appears 
to have increased in size. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   1232 3223
      Darwin               7   1222 3223
      Townsville           7   1222 3223
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             8   1232 3223
      Canberra             8   1232 3223
      Hobart               8   1232 3222
      Casey(Ant)           9   3331 1222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 APR : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            78   (Active)
      Hobart              77   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9   2321 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are still expected over the next 3 
days. Geomagnetic activity over the previous 24hrs has been quiet. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions are expected over the next 
2 days at low to mid lattituds.High lattitudes expected to have 
be normal-fair conditions. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 Apr    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr    70    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr    70    near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected for today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 417 km/sec  Density:    6.0 p/cc  Temp:    64700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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