[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 460 to 400 km/sec over 
the UT day. This may indicate that the Earth is leaving the weak 
coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around neutral (+/-5nT) 
over the UT day. The Sun has been flare quiet over the UT day. 
Solar region 595 S09E68 looks a little bright in Halpha. Another 
two small regions may rotate over the north and south east solar 
limb in coming days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2211 3221
      Darwin               5   1211 2221
      Townsville           6   1211 3220
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Culgoora             6   1201 3220
      Canberra             7   2211 3221
      Hobart               7   2201 3321
      Casey(Ant)           9   3332 2121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 APR : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              38   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   2343 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr    11    Unsettled 
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Apr     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Field is expected to decline to quiet conditions over 
next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildy depressed MUFs observed local day yesterday for 
southern Aus/NZ region only. Generally good HF conditions expected 
for today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 445 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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