[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was moderately elevated at 420-480km/sec 
due to a weak coronal hole wind stream. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated around neutral 
(+/-5nT) over the UT day. The Sun has been flare quiet ove rthe 
UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2333 2322
      Darwin               8   1232 2321
      Townsville          11   2233 3322
      Learmonth            8   2222 3---
      Culgoora             8   1233 2222
      Canberra            14   1344 2322
      Hobart              14   1344 2322
      Casey(Ant)          15   3433 2333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 APR : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1111 2223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Apr    11    Unsettled 
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Isolated active periods observed yesterday. 27 day reccurance 
patterns suggest that active periods are possible for 17April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data available during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
18 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: A mild degradation in HF conditions may be experienced 
for southern Aus/NZ region first half of the UT day today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 397 km/sec  Density:    7.0 p/cc  Temp:    57900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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