[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1644UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Apr             17 Apr             18 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar region 591 in the solar south-west quadrant produced 
the isolated impulsive M1 event. However, the sunspot configuration 
is this region appears to have become more open over past 24 
hours, with the decline of intermediate spots. Solar wind speed 
gradually increased from 340 to 420Km/sec over the UT day. This 
may indicate the Earth has entered the wind stream from the north 
polar coronal hole. Mild to moderately elevated wind speed expected 
16-17 April. The north-south component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was mildly northward until 17UT, afterwhich mildy 
southward IMF conditions were observed. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   1112 2123
      Darwin               4   1112 1223
      Townsville           4   1112 2123
      Learmonth            5   1112 2223
      Culgoora             3   1011 2112
      Canberra             4   1011 2222
      Hobart               3   0111 2122
      Casey(Ant)           7   2232 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2110 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
17 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
18 Apr    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: 27 day reccurance patterns suggest that active periods 
are possible for 16-17April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at mid to high latitudes expected next 
2 days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
15 Apr    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
18 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. A mild degradation 
in HF conditions may be experinced for southern Aus/NZ region 
next two days, particularly during local night hours. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    85700 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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