[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind gradually decreased from 450-360km/s over 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was near neutral over the past 24 hours apart from a minor 
southward movement at 1430UT. Region 591 has shown to have increased 
in size over the past 24hrs. Solar activity overall has been 
quiet over the past 24hrs. A predicted weak shock arrival did 
not eventuate. A north polar coronal hole may produce a moderate 
increase in wind speeds from 16-17April. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2110 2102
      Darwin               3   2111 1112
      Townsville           2   2110 2002
      Learmonth            2   2100 2101
      Culgoora             2   2100 2002
      Canberra             2   2100 2001
      Hobart               2   2100 2002
      Casey(Ant)           8   3322 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 APR : 
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2222 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
17 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was quiet over the past 24hrs. 
No events to report. Reccurance pattern may result in active 
periods for 16-17April. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: There is a slight chance for mild degradation at mid 
to high latitudes over next 24hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
16 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 Apr    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions expected. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A8.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 482 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   242000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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