[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 14 APRIL - 16 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Apr:  93/38


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Apr             15 Apr             16 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed was between 450-500km/sec over the 
past 24 hours. The north-south component of theinterplanetary 
magnetic field was near neutral over the past 24 hours. No shock 
has been observed in the past 24 hours. There is a chance for 
a weak shock arrival in the next 24 hours. A north polar coronal 
hole may produce a moderate increase in wind speeds from 16-17April. 
The Sun has been quiet over the past 24 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2112 2122
      Darwin               4   2112 1123
      Townsville           4   1112 2112
      Learmonth            4   2112 2022
      Culgoora             3   1112 2012
      Canberra             5   2122 2022
      Hobart               5   1222 2112
      Casey(Ant)           9   3322 2133
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 APR : 
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra            26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              37   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   3243 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Apr    12    Unsettled, chance for active periods. 
15 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods did not eventuate over past 24 hours. 
Outside chance for active periods next 24 hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1140UT 11/04, Ended at 0335UT 12/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF conditions did not eventuate. 
Chance for mild degradation at mid to high latitudes over next 
24hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Apr    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Apr    60    near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: No mild degradation in HF conditions observed. Generally 
good HF conditions expected. Mild degradation possible local 
night hours tonight. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A8.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Apr
Speed: 442 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:    90300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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