[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 13 APRIL - 15 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Apr:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Apr             14 Apr             15 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed over the last 24 hrs showed a weak 
shock like feature around 1740UT. This was probably from a recent 
minor mass ejection. Another week shock in the solar wind is 
expected over the next 24 hours from the C9/DSF event on 11April. 
This event also produced a weak proton event which has now ended. 
SOHO EIT284 imagery appears to show that solar regions 577 and 
583 may be returning to the solar disc. However these regions 
produced little activity on their previous transits.A north polar 
coronal hole may produce a moderate increase in wind speeds from 
16-17April. 

ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 
12/1515UT, which can be a precursor to increased geomagnetic 
activity over next 24-36 hours. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 12 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2232 2232
      Darwin               9   2222 2332
      Townsville           8   2232 1232
      Learmonth            7   2222 1231
      Culgoora             8   2232 1232
      Canberra             9   2232 2232
      Hobart               8   2232 2221
      Casey(Ant)          14   3433 2233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              30   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3232 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Apr    16    active 
14 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
15 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods are expected for 13April due to a disappearing 
solar filament that occured on 11April that was associated with 
a C9 flare. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Began at 1140UT 11/04, Ended at 0335UT 12/04
 

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible on 13 April at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Apr    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near monthly predicted values.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Apr    60    near predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    60    near predicted monthly values 
15 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF condtions expected. Mild degradation 
possible local night hours 13 April, due to the anticipated arrival 
of a weak mass ejection. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: A6.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Apr
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    2.9 p/cc  Temp:   120000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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