[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 04

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 12 08:35:22 EST 2004


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr:  90/34


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed fluctuated around 420-460km/sec over 
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was mildly southward 11-19 UT. A very weak shock signature 
may occur in ACE solar wind data late on early 12 Apr from a 
recent mass ejection. A 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 11 04 2004 
1140UT and is in progress. This event is believed to be associated 
with a C9 flare at 0419UT on 11 April from solar region 588 then 
located at S18W50. A solar filament located at S18W50 began to 
erupt from the solar disk at 0307UT. A narrow south-west directed 
CME was visible in LASCO C3 imagery from 0547UT. A weak shock 
may be observed in ACE solar wind data on 13 April from this 
filament eruption. A second much larger CME (near full halo north 
west directed) was observed beginning at around 1342UT. However, 
this event appeared not to be associated with any on disk solar 
activity and is presumed to be a back-side event, and thus not 
Earth directed. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 1222
      Darwin               5   2221 1122
      Townsville           6   2222 2122
      Learmonth            7   3221 1222
      Culgoora             5   2221 1212
      Canberra             5   2222 1212
      Hobart               6   2222 2211
      Casey(Ant)          15   3443 2223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 APR : 
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            58   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              47   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   3332 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr    10    Quiet to unsettled. 
13 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
14 Apr     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: The field is expected to predominately quiet today. 
However, there is an outside chance for brief active periods 
late 11 Apr early 12 Apr due to a recent CME. The CME associated 
with the erupting solar filament may cause active periods on 
13 Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 11 04 2004 1140UT and 
is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
13 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Trans polar HF circuits may experience increased absorption 
due to proton event currently in progress. Mild degradation possible 
on 13 April at mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
14 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF condtions expected. Mild degradation 
possible local night hours 13 April, due to the anticipated arrival 
of a weak mass ejection. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 437 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    77200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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