[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 12 08:35:22 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed fluctuated around 420-460km/sec over
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly southward 11-19 UT. A very weak shock signature
may occur in ACE solar wind data late on early 12 Apr from a
recent mass ejection. A 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 11 04 2004
1140UT and is in progress. This event is believed to be associated
with a C9 flare at 0419UT on 11 April from solar region 588 then
located at S18W50. A solar filament located at S18W50 began to
erupt from the solar disk at 0307UT. A narrow south-west directed
CME was visible in LASCO C3 imagery from 0547UT. A weak shock
may be observed in ACE solar wind data on 13 April from this
filament eruption. A second much larger CME (near full halo north
west directed) was observed beginning at around 1342UT. However,
this event appeared not to be associated with any on disk solar
activity and is presumed to be a back-side event, and thus not
Earth directed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 2222 1222
Darwin 5 2221 1122
Townsville 6 2222 2122
Learmonth 7 3221 1222
Culgoora 5 2221 1212
Canberra 5 2222 1212
Hobart 6 2222 2211
Casey(Ant) 15 3443 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 APR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 58 (Unsettled)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3332 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Apr 10 Quiet to unsettled.
13 Apr 16 Unsettled to active
14 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The field is expected to predominately quiet today.
However, there is an outside chance for brief active periods
late 11 Apr early 12 Apr due to a recent CME. The CME associated
with the erupting solar filament may cause active periods on
13 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 11 04 2004 1140UT and
is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Apr Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
13 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
14 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Trans polar HF circuits may experience increased absorption
due to proton event currently in progress. Mild degradation possible
on 13 April at mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Apr 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
13 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
14 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally good HF condtions expected. Mild degradation
possible local night hours 13 April, due to the anticipated arrival
of a weak mass ejection.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: A7.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 77200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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