[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 April 04

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr:  88/32


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Apr             12 Apr             13 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              95/41             100/48
COMMENT: A weak shock is apparent in ACE solar wind data around 
1930UT. A data break at the time of the shock prevented automatic 
detection. Solar wind speed increased from 420 to 480 km/sec. 
This shock is believed associated with a full-halo coronal mass 
ejection reported to have occured from 1030-1624UT on 08 Apr. 
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
was northward post shock minimizing geoeffectiveness. A weak 
mass ejection directed to the south-west is visible in LASCO 
imagery from around 2040UT on 09 Apr. A very weak signature may 
occur in ACE solar wind data late on 11 Apr. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2232 1132
      Darwin               6   2221 1132
      Townsville           8   2232 1132
      Learmonth            8   2222 1143
      Culgoora             6   1232 0122
      Canberra             6   1232 0123
      Hobart               6   1232 1122
      Casey(Ant)          11   3432 2123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 APR : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora            15   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              25   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             16   3543 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Apr    16    Unsettled to active 
12 Apr    10    Unsettled to quiet 
13 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Active periods expected first half of today following 
weak shock arrival. The field is then expected to predomiately 
quiten. However, there is an outside chance for brief active 
periods late 11 Apr early 12 Apr due to a possible weak glancing 
blow from another CME observed on 09 Apr. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: There is a possibility of isolated disturbances at mid 
to high latitudes today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Apr    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 60% during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near normal.


Predicted Monthly T index for April:  45

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
12 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
13 Apr    55    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced after 
local dawn this morning southern Aus/NZ region. Degradation is 
not expected to persist and HF conditions should improve as the 
day progresses. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: A6.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 478 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   126000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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