[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 29 09:56:30 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 29 APRIL - 01 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Apr: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Apr 30 Apr 01 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only two B1.4
flares were recorded. The solar wind speed remained around
430 km/s during the first five hours of the UT day and then
gradually increased to 550 km/s (approx.) by 1400UT. The
solar wind speed then remained nearly steady at 550 km/s
(approx.) until around 2230UT. At the time of this report
the solar wind speed was approximately 600 km/s. The reason
for this rise in solar wind speed is not very clearly known,
but it was probably due to some stronger solar wind stream
from a small coronal hole in the north-western region. The
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field
(Bz) remained near the normal value for the first five hours
of the UT day and then remained mostly positive upto +7nT
until 1400UT. Bz then remained mostly negative upto
approximately -8nT for the next 8 hours. It was near the
normal value at the time of this report. The solar wind
stream may remain strong for one more day if it is due to
this coronal hole effect. A possible arrival of a CME late
on 29 April or early on 30 April, may also cause some further
strengthening in the solar wind stream during this period.
Due to unavailability of LASCO images no further comment
can be made about this CME at this stage. Region 596(S08W80)
holds potential for isolated C-class activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Apr: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 1121 1222
Darwin 5 1121 2222
Townsville 5 1121 2222
Learmonth 5 0020 2232
Culgoora 2 0020 1122
Canberra 3 1020 1122
Hobart 3 1020 0222
Casey(Ant) 8 1232 2232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 APR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
30 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
01 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Slight increase in geomagnetic activity was noticed
today, possibly due to an unexpected rise in solar wind
stream and Bz turning south. The geomagnetic activity will
probably remain at mostly unsettled levels with possibility
of some active periods during the next two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
30 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Minor degradations in HF conditions are possible at
mid and high latitudes during the next two days. The HF
conditions are expected to return to normal thereafter.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Apr 56
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Apr 52 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
5%.
30 Apr 52 near predicted monthly values/depressed upto
5%.
01 May 60 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF
conditions may be observed, especially in the southern Aus/NZ
regions during the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: A7.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Apr
Speed: 445 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 48800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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