[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 8 09:44:40 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: There was no significant flare activity today. There
is a possibility of further C- to M-class activity from region
588.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 2231 2223
Darwin 5 2221 2122
Townsville 7 2231 2223
Learmonth 7 2222 2223
Culgoora 7 2231 2222
Canberra 7 2231 2222
Hobart 7 2231 2223
Casey(Ant) 12 3432 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 APR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 70 (Active)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21 4444 4232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 20 active
09 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
10 Apr 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 7 April and
is current for interval 8 April only. Solar wind parameters declined
over the UT day as the present geoeffective coronal hole approaches
the west solar limb. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
field has been mostly near neutral, resulting in mostly quiet
geomagnetic conditions. A period of moderate Bz polarity fluctuations
late in the UT day preceded active to minor storm periods at
high latitudes. Active to minor storm periods are possible on
day one due to the anticipated shock arrival from the recent
CME sequence. Geomagnetic activity should decline to mostly quiet,
with isolated unsettled intervals, on days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near normal for the next
three days. There is a possibility of isolated disturbances at
mid to high latitudes due to geomagnetic disturbance from anticipated
solar wind shock arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day,
with variable local disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 60 5 to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 7 April
and is current for interval 8 April only. Overnight spread-F
conditions observed S Aus region. Spread-F observed generally
in Antarctic region. HF conditions should be mostly normal to
enhanced next three days. There is a possibility of distrubances
on day one at mid to high latitudes due to anticipated solar
wind shock arrival following the recent CME sequence.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 575 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 221000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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