[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 9 09:41:42 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 09 APRIL - 11 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:* YELLOW * ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Apr: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: A C1 level flare with associated Type II radio sweep
was observed at 0150UT. No optical correlation was available.
This was possibly a back-side event. There was a long duration
C7 level flare at 1030UT with a weak full halo CME observed in
LASCO C3 imagery. The region of origin was AR 588, near the centre
of the visible solar disk. This event may produce a minor geoeffective
shock on Apr 11. A disappearing solar filament was reported in the
vicinity of AR 588 at 1250UT, with no obvious CME observed in LASCO
C3 imagery. There is a possibility of further isolated C- to low
M-class activity from region 588.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 08 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 2334 3323
Darwin 13 2324 3323
Townsville 16 2334 4323
Learmonth 13 2323 4323
Culgoora 12 1234 3323
Canberra 19 2335 4323
Hobart 17 2335 3322
Casey(Ant) 14 -433 3223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 APR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 41 (Unsettled)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3332 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Apr 20 active
10 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Apr 20 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled, with a
brief period of active conditions in the mid-part of the UT day,
reaching minor storm levels in some locations. Solar wind parameters
have declined from the recent coronal hole effects and remained
steady throughout the UT day. The anticipated shock arrival following
a recent CME sequence has so far not eventuated. There is still
a possibility of this arrival on Apr 09. A weak full halo CME
was observed today after 1030UT, which may produce a minor geoeffective
shock on Apr 11. Otherwise, geomagnetic activity should decline
to mostly quiet, with isolated unsettled intervals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near normal for the next
three days. There is a possibility of isolated disturbances at
mid to high latitudes due to geomagnetic disturbance from anticipated
solar wind shock arrivals on days one and three.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Apr 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20-25% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Mostly near predicted monthly values with
isolated local disturbances.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Apr 75 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 60 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
11 Apr 70 10 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Brief overnight depressions observed N Aus region. Spread-F
conditions observed generally in Antarctic region. HF conditions
should be mostly normal to enhanced next three days. There is
a possibility of distrubances on days one and three at mid to
high latitudes due to anticipated solar wind shock arrivals following
recent CME events.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Apr
Speed: 522 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 94000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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