[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 7 09:56:22 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.4/SF 1328UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Region
588(S15E13) produced a few B-class and an M2.4 flare.
The M2.4 flare that peaked at 1328UT was associated to
a full halo CME with an estimated speed of about
1075km/s. The CME is not earthward directed but may
have a glancing blow on 08 April. The solar wind speed
increased from 460 to 600 km/s (approx.) by around
2100UT. It then showed a gradual decrease to
approximately 550 km/s until the time of this report.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) showed minor to moderate fluctuations around
the normal value almost the whole day. The effect of
the coronal hole is continuing and is expected to go
on for a few more days. The shape of the coronal hole
suggests that its effect may or may not be steady in
nature. The possible glancing blow from the CME obseved
on 05 April may cause some strengthening in the solar
wind stream during the second half of 07 April or on
08 April. A possible glancing blow from the CME observed
on 06 April may also strengthen the solar wind stream
on 08 April. Region 588 may produce C-class of M-class
activities.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 17 2344 4232
Darwin 15 2234 4232
Townsville 16 2344 4222
Learmonth 20 3235 4242
Culgoora 16 2344 4222
Canberra 17 2344 4233
Hobart 17 2344 4233
Casey(Ant) 17 3344 3233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 APR :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 76 (Active)
Hobart 89 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14 1101 3454
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 24 Moslty unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
08 Apr 26 Moslty unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
09 Apr 22 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April
and is current for interval 5-7 April. Quiet to active
periods were observed on 06 April, due to the anticipated
effect of a coronal hole. The effect of this coronal hole
is expected to continue for the next few days. Possible
glancing blows from the two CMEs observed on 05 and 06
April may also strengthen the geomagnetic activity from
second half on 07 April to 08 April. Active to minor
storm periods may be observed on 07 and 08 April. However,
if Bz doesn't go negative the geomagnetic activity may not
rise to as high levels as predicted above.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
08 Apr Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
09 Apr Normal Normal Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show degradations
during the next two days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and strong degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 40 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
08 Apr 40 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
09 Apr 44 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on
4 April and is current for interval 5-7 April. HF conditions
may show degradations during the next 2 days in Aus/NZ regions.
MUF depressions of 5 to 25 % are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 10.1 p/cc Temp: 19900 K Bz: 14 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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