[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 6 09:57:36 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7/1F 0555UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 0606UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate today. Region
588(S15E24) produced several B-class and an M1.7 flare.
The M1.7 flare that peaked at 0555UT, was associated to
a Type II radio burst and a CME. Culgoora reported
possible speeds of 615 km/s or 950 km/s for this TypeII
event as the fundamental and harmonic components of the
event were not clearly visible. The CME is not earthward
directed but may have a glancing blow late on 07 April
or in the first half of 08 April. The solar wind speed
decreased from 420 to 380 km/s (approx.) until around
0600UT. It then showed a gradual increase throughout the
rest of the day and reached upto approximately 460 km/s
by the time of this report. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained positive
and steady at approximately 15 nT during the first six
hours of the UT day and then started falling towards the
normal value and showed minor fluctuations around the
normal value during the last four hours of the UT day.
These variations in the solar wind speed and Bz indicate
that the earth has entered the high speed solar wind
speed of the coronal hole, an arm of which is in the
geoeffective position now. The effect of the coronal
hole is expected to continue for the next few days.
The shape of the coronal hole suggests that its effect
may or may not be steady in nature. The possible glancing
blow from the CME obseved on 05 April may also cause some
strengthening in the solar wind stream during the second
half of 07 April or first half of 08 April. Region 588 has
shown some growth in magnetic compexity during the last
24 hours. Regions 588 and 587 (S14W32) hold potential for
C-class activity and can also produce isolated M-flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to active with
periods of minor storm.
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 12 1112 3444
Darwin 12 1212 3444
Townsville 12 1112 3444
Learmonth 12 2111 3444
Culgoora 18 1112 3553
Canberra 19 0112 4554
Hobart 19 0112 4554
Casey(Ant) 13 3332 3333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 APR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 5321 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 26 Active to minor storm
07 Apr 32 Active to minor storm. Isolated major storm periods
possible.
08 Apr 32 Active to minor storm. Isolated major storm periods
possible.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 4 April
and is current for interval 5-7 April. Active to minor
storm periods were observed on 05 April, probably due to
the starting of a coronal hole effect. The effect of this
coronal hole is expected to continue for the next few days.
A possible glancing blow from a CME may also slightly
strengthen the geomagnetic activity late on 07 or in the
first half of 08 April. Active to minor storm periods may
be observed from 06 to 08 April. Even isolated major storm
conditions are possible on 07 and 8 April. However, if Bz
doesn't go negative the geomagnetic activity may not rise
to as high levels as predicted above.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Fair-normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
07 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
08 Apr Fair Fair Fair-Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to show degradations
during the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day
with periods of minor to substantial depressions
and degradation.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 47 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
07 Apr 42 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
08 Apr 42 10 to 25% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on
4 April and is current for interval 5-7 April. HF conditions
may show degradations during the next 3 days in Aus/NZ
regions. MUF depressions of 5 to 25 % are possible during
this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 471 km/sec Density: 5.0 p/cc Temp: 19700 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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