[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 4 09:58:59 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Regions 588(S12E50)
and 587(S13W4) produced B-class flares, the largest being a
B7.2 flare at 1808UT from region 587. The solar wind speed
remained between 360 and 400 km/s (approx) until around 0900UT
when the speed showed sudden increase. Other solar wind
parameters also showed sudden change at this time and a weak
shock seems to have arrived. The solar wind speed continued to
increase thereafter and reached 500 km/s at 1600UT. The solar
wind speed remained steady around 500 km/s during the rest of
the UT day. The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field (Bz) remained predominantly southwards during the UT day
and went as far negative as 10 nT (approx.). A sudden impulse
(27nT) was observed at 1410UT/03 April. These variations in
solar wind speed and Bz may have been caused by the CME activity
that was associated to the long duration flare on 31 March, or
they may have been caused by an earlier than anticipated strengthening
of the solar wind stream due a coronal hole which is crossing the
central meridian now and a part of which may already have taken
geo-effective position. Region 587 has shown slight decay whereas
region 588 has shown slight grwoth during the last 24 hours.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1356UT
on 03 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 22 2223 4554
Darwin 17 3223 4445
Townsville 25 2234 5455
Learmonth 24 1123 5555
Culgoora 18 1123 4454
Canberra 25 1223 5554
Hobart 27 1233 4564
Casey(Ant) 19 3223 3544
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 APR :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 25 Active to minor storm
05 Apr 25 Active to minor storm
06 Apr 40 Minor to major storm.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 12 was issued on 3 April and
is current for interval 4 April only. Minor storm periods were
observed on 03 April, probably due to an earlier than anticipated
arrival of a weak shock from a CME that was observed on 31 March,
or due to an earlier than anticipated effect of a coronal hole
that is crossing the central meridian now. Active to minor storm
periods may be observed on 04 and 05 April. Minor to major storm
conditions are possible on 06 April.
A weak (27nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter data
at 1410UT on 03 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
05 Apr Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
06 Apr Fair Fair Poor
COMMENT: HF conditions may show degradations during the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day with periods
of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Apr 52 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
06 Apr 45 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 3 April
and is current for interval 4 April only. HF conditions may show
degradations during the next 3 days in Aus/NZ regions. MUF depressions
of 5 to 20 % are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 76800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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