[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 04
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 3 09:47:24 EST 2004
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z APRIL 2004 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few
B-class flares were observed, the largest being a B4.6
flare at 0654UT from region 587(S13E10). As anticipated,
the solar wind speed has further slowed down. The solar
wind speed gradually decreased from 440 km/s to 370 km/s
(approx.) during the UT day. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained mostly
slightly positive during the UT day with minor occasional
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value. Region
587(S13E10) has shown some steady growth during the last
24 hours and there is some possibility of a low level
M-class flare from this region. A minor shock may arrive
on 04 April due to the faint full halo CME activity observed
on 31 March.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 2121 0101
Darwin 3 2121 0111
Townsville 3 1121 0112
Learmonth 2 1121 0101
Culgoora 1 1011 0102
Canberra 2 -121 0002
Hobart 1 1120 0001
Casey(Ant) 7 33-2 1111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 APR :
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Culgoora 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0011 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 6 Quiet
04 Apr 18 Mostly unsettled to active. Isolated minor storm
periods possible.
05 Apr 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at
quiet level on 03 April. However, the geomagnetic activity
may rise on 04 April due to an anticipated arrival of a CME
on this day. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are
expected on 04 April with some possibility of isolated minor
storm conditions, especially at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on 03 April in most regions. However, minor to moderate
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on 04 April at mid and high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 62
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by upto 35% with periods of depressions
and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 45
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 66 10 to 25% above predicted monthly values
04 Apr 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
05 Apr 58 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in all Aus/NZ regions on 03 April. Isolated periods of minor
depressions and degradations are possible on 04 April,
particularly in Southern Aus/NZ regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 67100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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