[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 SEPTEMBER - 01 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Sep: 137/91


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Sep             30 Sep             01 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78
COMMENT: There is the small chance of isolated M-class flare 
activity from solar region 464. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 28 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1112 1112
      Darwin              15   -3-3 --33
      Townsville           1   0011 1101
      Learmonth            1   0001 1112
      Canberra             2   0002 1201
      Hobart               3   1112 1110
      Casey(Ant)           6   2232 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary              9   3223 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate coronal hole effects 
continue to decline and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
are expected for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Sep    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Slightly enhanced to mostly near predicted
      monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Sep    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Sep
Speed: 458 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    64500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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