[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 SEPTEMBER - 02 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Sep: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Sep             01 Oct             02 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: Increased chance of isolated low level M-class flare 
activity today from solar region 464. Solar region 464 has about 4 
days to go before transiting the western solar limb. Background 
xray flux shows a steady increase during second half of UT day. 
A solar filament has been reported to have erupted from the solar 
disk late in the UT day (22-23UT) on 28 Sep. This small to medium 
sized solar filament was located at S20W30 and the eruption appeared 
slow on Culgoora H-alpha imagery. A very weak shock is possible 
from this eruption on 01 Oct. It is possible due to the filaments 
location that any ejecta from this eruption will be predominately 
westward directed. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 29 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1112 0012
      Darwin               5   -2-- 1122
      Townsville           1   1002 0012
      Learmonth            1   1111 0002
      Canberra             1   0002 0001
      Hobart               2   1102 0012
      Casey(Ant)           5   2232 1001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   2123 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
01 Oct    15    Mostly unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
02 Oct    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions expected. 27 day 
recurrence suggests there is a chance for isolated active periods 
on 1 and 2 Oct. Also, a weak sudden impulse may be experienced 
on 01 Oct from the recent erupting solar filament. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal     
01 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair-Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for today. A mild 
degradation in HF comms quality is possible 01-02 Oct. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Sep    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% early in the UT day.
      No data after 10 UT.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Sep    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
01 Oct    85    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
02 Oct    85    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+08 (high)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Sep
Speed: 378 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    27200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,confidential
or copyright information.  The views expressed in this message are those of
the individual sender, unless specifically stated to be the views of IPS.
If you are not the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.