[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 SEPTEMBER - 30 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Sep: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Sep             29 Sep             30 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             125/78




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 27 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   2111 0013
      Darwin               5   -2-- 1124
      Townsville           3   2111 0024
      Learmonth            2   2111 0013
      Canberra             2   2101 0013
      Hobart               2   2111 0012
      Casey(Ant)           5   3--2 0013
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              24   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   3344 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Sep    12    Unsettled 
29 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
30 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate coronal hole effects 
continue to decline and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions 
are expected for the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Sep    87

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day,
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Sep    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Sep    80    5 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Sep
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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