[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 SEPTEMBER - 29 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Sep: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Sep             28 Sep             29 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78
COMMENT: There is the small chance of isolated M-class flare 
activity from solar region 464. The CME associated with the disappearing 
solar filament observed on 24 September does not appear to be 
Earthward directed from LASCO imagery. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Sep: Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 26 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3333 3323
      Darwin              19   4--4 32--
      Townsville          10   2233 3223
      Learmonth            9   2222 3323
      Canberra            13   2333 3333
      Hobart              13   2333 3333
      Casey(Ant)          17   4-43 3323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 SEP : 
      Townsville          14   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           43   (Unsettled)
      Canberra           156   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             171   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             28   4455 4443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Sep    15    Mostly unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
28 Sep    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Elevated geomagnetic activity levels resulting from 
a high speed coronal hole solar wind stream are expected to continue 
to decline over the next few days. The disappearing solar filament 
observed on 24 September is not expected to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be observed at times 
for 27 September for high latitudes only. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Sep    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 10-20% at times otherwise near
      predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 10-20% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Sep    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
28 Sep    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
29 Sep    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be observed at times 
for 27 September for southern regions only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Sep
Speed: 694 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   257000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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