[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 SEPTEMBER - 28 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Sep: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Sep             27 Sep             28 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84
COMMENT: There is the small chance of isolated M-class flare 
activity from solar region 464. The CME associated with the disappearing 
solar filament observed on 24 September does not appear to be 
Earthward directed from LASCO imagery. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Sep: Unsettled to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 25 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      24   3345 4433
      Darwin              24   3354 4432
      Townsville          23   2345 4433
      Learmonth           26   3335 5433
      Canberra            23   3345 4333
      Hobart              23   3345 4333
      Casey(Ant)          24   4544 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 SEP : 
      Townsville          16   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           72   (Active)
      Canberra           168   (Severe storm)
      Hobart             135   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             33   5554 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active 
27 Sep    12    Unsettled 
28 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at mostly unsettled 
to active levels for 26 September due to a high speed coronal 
hole solar wind stream. Activity should decline over the next 
few days. The disappearing solar filament observed on 24 September 
is not expected to be geoeffective. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be observed at times 
for 26 September for high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Sep    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed 15-30% at times otherwise mostly
      near predicted monthly values.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Sep    70    Mostly enhanced 5-10% values with depressions 
                of 5-10% possible at times for southern regions. 
27 Sep    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
28 Sep    75    5 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF conditions may be observed at times 
for 26 September for southern regions only. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Sep
Speed: 617 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   214000 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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