[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Sep             15 Sep             16 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 600 to 450km/sec as the 
Earth leaves the high speed wind stream. ACE EPAM low energy 
ion flux data channels are not showing any shock precursor flux 
increase. This may mean that either the expected weak shock arrival 
from recent erupting solar filaments will arrive much later than 
expected and/or will be an extremely weak event. 27 day recurrent 
patterns suggest coronal hole wind stream effects 17-18 Sep. 
Solar region 456 now in the far south-west solar quadrant has 
shown some growth overnight. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 13 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2332 1012
      Darwin               9   3-33 2112
      Townsville           5   2321 0013
      Learmonth            3   2221 0012
      Canberra             6   2332 0012
      Hobart               6   2331 0012
      Casey(Ant)          11   3432 1122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 SEP : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            74   (Active)
      Hobart              83   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3333 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Sep    16    Unsettled to active 
15 Sep    10    Unsettled 
16 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 12 September 
and is current for interval 14-15 September. Weak geomagnetic 
activity possible 14 Sep due to recent erupting solar filamant. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation in HF codntions possibel today, due 
to possible arrival of weak mass ejection. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Sep    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Sep    60    near predicted monthly values 
15 Sep    50    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
16 Sep    55    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildy degraded conditions possible 14-15 Sep, southern 
Aus/NZ region only, due the possible arrival of a weak mass ejection. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 603 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   140000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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