[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 13 08:33:19 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed steady at around 600km/sec, not declining
as fast as expected. Two small to medium sized solar filaments
have been reported to have erupted from the solar disk (near
disk centre a geoeffective location) at around 21 UT on 11 Sep.
A weak halo mass ejection was also reported with this event.
A weak shock is epxected in the solar wind early on 14 Sep. There
is a chance for an isolated low level flare from region 456.
An equatorial coronal hole is visible in SOHO EIT imagery just
rounding the eastern solar limb. 27 day recurrent patterns suggest
the wind stream from this hole will reach the Earth 17-18 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 3332 3121
Darwin 12 3333 3221
Townsville 9 2332 3121
Learmonth 9 3322 3111
Canberra 8 2322 3122
Hobart 8 2322 3121
Casey(Ant) 17 4443 3221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 SEP :
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 61 (Active)
Canberra 139 (Severe storm)
Hobart 132 (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15 4523 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 Sep 16 active
15 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mild to moderate geomagnetic activity now expected
14 Sep due to expected arrival of reported erupting filament
associated weak mass ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Conditions at high latitudes have not improved as quickly
as forecast,from recent mild/moderate degradation. However, improving
conditions are expected for today. A return to mild to moderately
degraded conditions is expected on 14 Sep due to anticiapted
arrival of a weak mass ejection associated with two erupting
solar filamants.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 55
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spreead F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 55 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 65 near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some southern region sites may experience 10-15% depressed
MUFs at times today. Northern Aus region MUFs expected to be
near to 15% above predicted monthly values.A trend of improving
HF conditions is expected for today, before a return to midly
degraded conditions 14-15 Sep, southern Aus/NZ region only, due
the the expected arrival of a weak mass ejection from two recently
erupting solar filaments.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 642 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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