[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep:  97/44


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 650km/sec to 550km/sec 
over the UT day. The sun has been flare quiet over past 24 hours. 
Development in solar region 456 has slowed. There is a chance 
for an isolated low level flare from this region. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 11 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3413 2222
      Darwin              13   3423 3222
      Townsville           8   3312 2222
      Learmonth           10   4312 2222
      Canberra             9   3313 2222
      Hobart               9   3313 2222
      Casey(Ant)          19   45-3 3222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 SEP : 
      Townsville          12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           24   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            75   (Active)
      Hobart              61   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             19   4234 3343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Generally quiet levels expected next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Propagation conditions expected to improve further today. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    65    near predicted monthly values 
13 Sep    65    near predicted monthly values 
14 Sep    65    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some southern region sites 10-15% depressed at times. 
Some northern region sites were 15% depressed during local night 
hours, 15% enhanced local daylight hours. Normal HF conditions 
expected for today. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 652 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:   216000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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