[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             110/60             110/60
COMMENT: Solar wind speed is elevated at around 650km/sec. Solar 
wind speed expected to decline over next 24 hours. The 
north south component of the interplanetary magnetic field has 
remained mostly northward. The sun has been flare quiet over 
past 24 hours. However, solar region 456 located just west of the 
central solar meridian has shown good growth since 00UT on 10 Sep, 
visible in SOHO MDI imagery. If this devleopment rate persists flare 
activity may occur. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 10 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   3224 3233
      Darwin              17   3235 3232
      Townsville          15   4224 3233
      Learmonth           13   3224 3231
      Canberra            12   3323 3233
      Hobart              11   3223 3233
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--3 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 SEP : 
      Townsville           6   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           26   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            77   (Active)
      Hobart              76   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             19   2234 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep    12    Unsettled 
12 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Declining trend in geomagnetic activity expected. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions observed at high latitudes
at times over past 24 hours. Conditions at mid to high latitudes 
should improve over next two days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Mildly depressed to near predicted monthly values.
      Some absorption and spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
12 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
13 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Hobart and Mundaring MUFs were 15% depressed during 
local daylight hours yesterday. Other southern Aus region and NZ 
sites were near predicted monthly values. 15% enhanced conditions likely 
again today for northern Aus region MUFs. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 550 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:   337000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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