[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Sep             11 Sep             12 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41             100/48             105/54
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased to 600km/sec. The north 
south component of the interplanetary magnetic field has remianed 
northward reducing the geoeffectiveness of this high speed wind 
stream. ACE EPAM low energy ion monitor (increasing flux 
levels can be a pre-cursor to shock arrival) flux levels 
appear to have peaked late in the UT day on 08 Sep. EPAM fluxes 
are now in decline, suggesting the weak shock should have arrived.
However, the anticapted weak shock arrival has failed to eventuate 
and the shock may have appeared as indistinct discontinuities in 
ACE SWEPAM data at either 03UT or 08 UT on 09 Sep. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 09 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2233 3334
      Darwin              19   --34 4334
      Townsville          12   2233 3334
      Learmonth           14   2233 3344
      Canberra            12   2233 3334
      Hobart              12   2233 3334
      Casey(Ant)          21   -444 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           11   (Quiet)
      Canberra            82   (Minor storm)
      Hobart              71   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              9   2122 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Sep    16    Unsettled to active 
11 Sep    12    Unsettled 
12 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 5 September 
and is current for interval 8-10 September. Coronal hole induced 
geomagnetic activity has remained milder than forecast due to 
northward orientation of Bz. Expected weak sudden impulse has 
failed to eventuate. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation expected at mid to high latitudes today 
then improving. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Sep    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
11 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
12 Sep    70    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 7 September 
and is current for interval 9-10 September. Mild MUF depressions 
now not expected due to reduced geomagnetic activity, and failure 
of mass ejection arrival. Good HF conditions expected for northern 
region Australia. Some mild degradations in HF communications 
quality may be experienced for southern region Aus/NZ durling 
local night hours tonight. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+08 (moderate)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 407 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    70300 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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