[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 9 09:03:15 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed started the UT day at 420km/sec reaching
a daily minimum of 370km/sec at around 11UT, then began a steady
increase reaching 480km/sec by the end of the UT day. This indicates
that the Earth has entered the anticipated coronal hole wind
stream. So far the north south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has been quite northward reducing the geoeffectiveness
of this wind stream. ACE EPAM low energy ion monitor (increased flux
levels on this instrument can be a pre-cursor to shock arrival), is
showing a steady increase in flux during the second half of the UT day.
A weak shock is expected to arrive second half of 9 Sep from the recent
erupting solar filament.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 0112 1223
Darwin 11 --33 -222
Townsville 3 0011 2223
Learmonth 3 0111 1222
Canberra 1 0001 1113
Hobart 2 0001 1122
Casey(Ant) 7 2222 2223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 65 (Active)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 10 3312 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 18 Unsettled to active, weak impulse late in UT
day. Chance minor storm periods following impulse.
10 Sep 18 Initailly active, then declining.
11 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 5 September
and is current for interval 8-10 September. Coronal hole induced
geomagnetic activity may be milder than forecast if northward
orientation of Bz persists. Geomagnetic forecast has been eased
for this reason. A weak impulse is expected is the geomagnetic
field second half of UT day 9 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Anticiapted degradation period may not be as strong
as originaly expected. Milder degradation now expected late 9-10
Sep.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 70 near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 70 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 7 September
and is current for interval 9-10 September. Degradations now
expected not to be as strong as originally forecast, due to weaker
than expected geomagnetic activity. Mildly degraded conditions
now expected for southern Aus/NZ region mostly during local night
hours, and after local dawn late 9 and early 10 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 459 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 98300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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