[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 8 08:46:43 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar region 450 located in the south-west quadrant
of the solar disk produced a C5 flare with a slow decline at
1407UT. This event has been reported to have caused a filament
then located at S38W18 to erupt. This filament eruption is visible
as a mass ejection on the south-west solar limb in LASCO C3 imagery.
It is first visible around 1818UT. Ejecta expansion seems to
be moderate, perhaps predominately westward directed. A glancing
blow from this mass jection is expected late on 09 Sep. The Solar
wind speed continued its decline from 550 to 400km/sec over the
UT day. An increase in solar wind speed is expected in the next
24 hours due to the Earth entering a high speed wind stream from
a large coronal hole now just west of the centre of the solar
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 2211 1211
Darwin 6 222- 2211
Townsville 2 1110 0111
Learmonth 4 2211 0120
Canberra 2 1200 0211
Hobart 1 1200 0101
Casey(Ant) 10 3--3 2221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Canberra 65 (Active)
Hobart 46 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 12 3233 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 20 Active, chance for minor storm periods.
09 Sep 25 Active to minor storm. Sudden impulse expected
late in day.
10 Sep 18 Initially Active to minor storm then declining.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 41 was issued on 5 September
and is current for interval 8-10 September. Coronal hole induced
geomagnetic activity expected 8-10 Sep. In addition a coronal
mass ejection asscoiated with an erupting solar filament is expected
to arrive on 09 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Sep Normal Fair Fair-poor
10 Sep Normal Fair Fair
COMMENT: Initially good HF conditions expected today, then becoming
degraded at mid to high latitudes. Degradation expected to be
strongest on 09 Sep due to combination of coronal hole high speed
wind stream and mass ejection effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 70 about 10% above predicted monthly values
09 Sep 50 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 40 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 62 was issued on 7 September
and is current for interval 9-10 September. Initially good HF
condtions expected today, then becoming degraded. Degradations
expected to be confined to southern Aus/NZ region mostly during
local night hours, with depressions likely after local dawn
on days 2 and 3 of forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 586 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 146000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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