[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 15 09:10:38 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Sep 16 Sep 17 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined from 460 to 380km/sec. A large
equatorial coronal hole is visible in SOHO EIT284 imagery located
just to the east of solar central meridian. The high speed wind
stream effects from this hole are expected to start 17-18 Sep.
The Sun has been flare quiet over past 24 hours. A solar filament
has been reported to have erupted from the north-west solar
quadrant at around 1840UT on 14 Sep. ACE EPAM low energy ion flux
data channels are still not showing any shock precursor flux
increase, and shock arrival forecast has been cancelled.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 2221 2111
Darwin 7 --3- 2112
Townsville 4 1221 2112
Learmonth 5 2221 2111
Canberra 3 1220 1100
Hobart 3 1220 1101
Casey(Ant) 10 3332 2222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 SEP :
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 11 3333 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled
16 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
17 Sep 20 Initially quiet to unsettled, reaching active
to minor storm levels later in day.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 12 September
and is current for interval 14-15 September. The geomagnetic
field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the
next two days. Active to minor storm conditions are expected
from late on 17 Sep due to anticipated coronal hole high speed wind
stream induced effects. The recently forecast weak shock arrival
has failed to eventuate.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
17 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Recently forecast mild degradations in HF conditions
due to a weak mass ejection are now not expected. Good HF conditions
now expected next two days. Moderate degradation in HF conditions
expected from late 17 Sep mid to high latitudes due to coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Sep 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 57
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Sep 60 near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 60 near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 50 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15%
COMMENT: Good HF conditions expected next two days. Southern
Aus/NZ region HF communication expected to become degraded from
late 17 Sep due to anticpated coronal hole induced geomagnetic
activity. Recently forecast mild degradations in HF conditions
due to a weak mass ejection are now not expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B1.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 87100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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