[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Sep             05 Sep             06 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             125/78             130/84
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has been moderately elevated over the 
past 24 hours at around 500km/sec. The north-south component 
of the IMF has been predominately northward with only occassional 
fluctuations southward, reducing geoeffectiveness. The coronal 
hole origin of this wind stream is now located in the western 
solar hemisphere. 27 day recurrence patterns suggest elevated 
solar wind speed conditions expected for next two days, then 
declining. Also another coronal hole arm is visible in SOHO EIT 
imagery in the eastern solar hemisphere, stretching down from 
the north pole over the solar equator. Increased solar wind speeds 
expected from this hole during interval 8-10 Sep. The Sun has 
been flare quiet over past 24 hours. Solar region 431 may be 
returning to the south-east solar limb. This region only produced 
two low level M class events on its previous rotation. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 03 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      12   2234 2232
      Darwin              16   2235 3232
      Townsville          10   2233 2232
      Learmonth           11   2223 2242
      Canberra            13   2234 2242
      Hobart              12   2234 2232
      Casey(Ant)          18   4443 22--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 SEP : 
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Canberra            73   (Active)
      Hobart              72   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12   3212 4333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Sep    18    Unsettled to active 
05 Sep    18    Unsettled to active 
06 Sep     9    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods expected next two days due to moderate 
speed solar coronal hole wind stream. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
05 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions possible next two days 
at mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Sep    85

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Sep    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
05 Sep    70    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Sep    70    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradations in HF communications quality possible 
local night hours southern Aus/NZ region next two days. Higher 
than normal MUFs may be experienced for northern Aus region. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 528 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   196000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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