[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 03

Wed Sep 3 09:44:10 EST 2003

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:* YELLOW *     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 106/55

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Sep             04 Sep             05 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             125/78             130/84
COMMENT: No significant changes to visible active regions observed. 
Isolated C-class activity is possible. 

Previously M-flare(s) producing region 431 is due for return 
to the south-east limb around 3 Sep. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 02 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   3132 4223
      Darwin               9   223- 3223
      Townsville           9   2222 4223
      Learmonth           10   3122 4223
      Canberra            10   2122 4323
      Hobart               8   2121 4223
      Casey(Ant)          22   4-43 43--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 SEP : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           14   (Quiet)
      Canberra            89   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             107   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   2441 2333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Sep    18    active 
04 Sep    25    active 
05 Sep    25    active 
COMMENT: Although solar wind speed has remained elevated above 
500 km/s for most of the UT day, sustained northward polarity 
of the interplanetary magnetic field Bz has resulted in mostly 
unsettled geomagnetic conditions with isolated active periods. 
Later in the UT day, Bz fluctuations increased in amplitude as 
polarity trended towards neutral. A large north-polar extension 
of the current coronal hole is moving into geoeffective position. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to increase as this occurs, 
with the possibility of active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions 
over the next few days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor     
05 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Possible degraded HF conditions during the next few 
days in association with increased geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Sep    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20-30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night and after
      local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
       Near predicted monthly values with periods 
       of disturbance local night hours.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Sep    75    10 to 20% above predicted monthly values 
04 Sep    65    near predicted monthly values 
05 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Generally good HF conditions at time of report issue. 
Possible degradations later today and for the next few days due 
to anticipated high speed coronal hole wind stream effects. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 434 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:   124000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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