[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 2 09:47:37 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 125/78
COMMENT: No significant changes to visible active regions observed.
Isolated C-class activity is possible from regions 448 and 449.
Previously M-flare(s) producing region 431 is due for return
to the south-east limb around 3 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 14 2441 2332
Darwin 19 -5-- 2232
Townsville 11 2341 2232
Learmonth 13 2342 2332
Canberra 9 1331 1333
Hobart 12 1441 2322
Casey(Ant) 18 3452 22--
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 SEP :
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 64 (Active)
Hobart 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2222 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 20 active
03 Sep 25 active
04 Sep 20 active
COMMENT: There was a steady increase in solar wind speed over
the second half of the UT day under the influence of an equatorial
coronal hole. Interplanetary magnetic field Bz maintained a slight
northward bias over the last 2/3 of the UT day, resulting in
mostly unsettled geoamagnetic conditions with isolated active
periods observed at high latitudes. A minor shock in the solar
wind was observed on the ACE satellite platform around 06UT,
with subsequent briefly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions
observed at S. Aus/Antarctic stations. Solar wind parameters
are expected to increase under the coronal hole influence, resulting
in active conditions over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
03 Sep Fair Fair Fair-Poor
04 Sep Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions observed at low latitudes before local
dawn. Extended periods of disturbance at high latitudes local
night hours. Possible degraded conditions next few days in association
with increased geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Extended periods of disturbance during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 56
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep 65 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 55 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
04 Sep 65 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Moderate absorption observed S. Ocean region around
local dawn. Extended periods of disturbance local night hours
at high latitudes. Geomagnetic activity has been limited by persisting
northward bias in interplanetary magnetic field, but periods
of HF degradation are possible over the next few days due to
elevated solar wind speed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate)
X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 443 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 81100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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