[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Sep             02 Sep             03 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain low. A minor southwest 
directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery at about 0800UT. This 
was asscociated with a C1 level flare in AR 442. A minor shock 
from this event may be observed at the Earth on Sep 02-03 if 
solar wind speed near the sun was at low levels at the time of 
the event. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 31 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2222 3212
      Darwin               7   --3- 2112
      Townsville           7   2222 3212
      Learmonth            6   2211 3212
      Canberra             7   1222 3212
      Hobart               7   1222 3211
      Casey(Ant)          11   2332 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 AUG : 
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Canberra           118   (Major storm)
      Hobart             117   (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             17   4533 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Sep    18    active 
02 Sep    25    active 
03 Sep    25    active 
COMMENT: With the gradual decline in solar wind speed to low 
levels over the UT day, geomagnetic activity was at mostly quiet 
levels today. A large equatorial coronal hole has now rotated 
into geoeffective position, and high speed wind stream effects 
from this feature are expected to commence within the next 24 
hours. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
02 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
03 Sep      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected after today in association 
with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Aug    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30% over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20% over the UT day.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Slightly enhanced/near predicted monthly values.
      Extended periods of night-time spread-F.


Predicted Monthly T index for August:  60

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Sep    75    near predicted monthly values 
02 Sep    55    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
03 Sep    55    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Expect generally good HF conditions at first today. 
Possibility of degraded conditions later today or early tomorrow 
in association with coronal hole induced geomagnetic activity. 
HF disturbance may persist for several days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 551 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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