[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 03

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             120/72             125/78
COMMENT: Solar wind speed has increased from 500 to 650km/sec 
over the UT day. The north-south component of the IMF has again 
been predominately northward with only occassional fluctuations 
southward, reducing geoeffectiveness. Elevated solar wind speed 
conditions expected for today then declining. Also another coronal 
hole high speed wind stream is expected during interval 8-10 
Sep. The solar disk has been quiet over the past 24 hours. Spots 
from the presumed returning solar region 431 have yet to appear 
on disk. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Unsettled to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region      17   3324 4333
      Darwin              19   33-5 4222
      Townsville          10   330- ----
      Learmonth           17   3234 4334
      Canberra            18   3334 4333
      Hobart              17   3334 4233
      Casey(Ant)          24   5--3 3433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 SEP : 
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra           100   (Minor storm)
      Hobart             127   (Severe storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   3334 3334     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep    18    active 
06 Sep     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Sep    11    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active periods expected today due to moderate solar 
coronal hole wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is then expected 
to decline before returning to active levels after 08 Sep. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions possible today at mid 
to high latitudes, then improving. A return to mildly degraded 
condtions is expected at mid to high latitudes after 08 Sep. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for September:  57

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
06 Sep    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
07 Sep    80    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradations in HF communications quality possible 
local night hours southern Aus/NZ region tonight. Higher than 
normal MUFs may be experienced for northern Aus region. Another 
period of mildly degraded conditions is expected after 08 Sep. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 491 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:   145000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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