[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 October 03
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 30 10:59:15 EST 2003
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z OCTOBER 2003 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 OCTOBER - 01 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X10/-- 2049UT probable all East Pacific/
North American
M3/-- 0511UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Oct: 279/232
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Oct 31 Oct 01 Nov
Activity High High High
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 275/227 265/216 260/210
COMMENT: Solar activity was high today. Solar region
486 (S17W09) produced an X10 flare at 2040UT and an M3.5
flare at 0511UT. A long duration M1.1 flare was also
observed which peaked at 0151UT. Four C-class flares
were also observed today. Today's X10 flare was associated
with a Type II event and a full halo CME. Shock is expected
to arrive sometime late on 31 October or early on 01
November. Culgoora Radiospectograph has reported an
expected shock speed of 850 km/s. There have been reports
that calculated this speed upto 1948 km/s. As expected the
shock due to the CME activity observed on 28 October arrived
at 0611UT/29 October. A strong sudden impulse (139nT) was
also observed at the arrival of this shock and Bz suddenly
went southward upto -50nT (approx). The solar wind speed
showed a sharp rise from 480 km/s to 900 km/s on the arrival
of this shock. The solar wind speed is currently approximately
1000 km/s. The north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remained near normal during the first 6 hours
of the UT day, it then fluctuated between +50nT and -50nT for
approximately two hours, remained approximately +20 nT for the
next 10 hours and then went -25nT for the rest of the day. The
>100MeV and >10 MeV proton events are still continueing. Solar
activity is expected to remain high during the next 3 days.
Regions 486 and 488(N08W18) are likely to produce major flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Oct: Active to Severe Storm Levels
Estimated Indices 29 Oct : A K
Australian Region 139 4587 8776
Darwin - ---- ----
Townsville 100 3577 767-
Learmonth 126 3477 8687
Culgoora 105 3677 767-
Canberra 135 4687 768-
Hobart 159 3687 88-7
Casey(Ant) 218 5-99 8765
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 OCT :
Townsville 120 (Major storm)
Learmonth 175 (Severe storm)
Culgoora 179 (Severe storm)
Canberra NA
Hobart NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 120
Planetary 150
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 3444 3434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Oct 70 Major storm first half UT day, then declining.
31 Oct 30 Unsettled to minor storm.
01 Nov 70 Active to major storm.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 50 was issued on 28 October
and is current for interval 29-30 October. The geomagnetic activity
reached severe storm levels on the arrival of the anticipated
CME observed on 28 October. This activity is expected to start
declining in the second half today or early tomorrow. Another
CME that was associated with today's X10 flare is likely to raise
the geomagnetic activity to 'Active to major storm' level on
day 3 of this period.
A strong (139nT) impulse was observed in the IPS magnetomter
data at 0611UT on 29 Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 10 2003 1215UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
31 Oct Fair Fair Fair-Poor
01 Nov Poor Poor Poor
COMMENT: Polar HF conditions are expected to remain poor during
the next 3 days. HF conditions are also expected to remain degraded
on mid latitudes on 30 October and 01 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Oct 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 55
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Oct 40 depressed 15 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
31 Oct 60 near predicted monthly values
01 Nov 40 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 79 was issued on 28 October
and is current for interval 29-31 October (SWFs) . HF conditions
in Aus/NZ region expected to show depressions and degradations
on 30 October and 1 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+08
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: C3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Oct
Speed: 580 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 97400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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